Japan’s Ishiba wins runoff vote to stay as PM ahead of likely Trump meeting

Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba won a runoff vote to stay in the job despite a national election setback, as he prepares for an expected meeting with US President-elect Donald Trump later this month.

Ishiba garnered 221 votes to secure his leadership position in the final round of a lower house ballot, winning the plurality needed to pull through in the runoff. Although he failed to gain a majority of the votes, he prevailed against main opposition party leader Yoshihiko Noda who gained 160, following divisions in the opposition camp and a decision by a key smaller party to vote for its own leader.

Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito lost their majority in the lower house of parliament in the October 27 election after their worst result since 2009.

But now with official backing from parliament, Ishiba is expected to depart this week to attend a meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Peru and then a Group of 20 leaders’ summit in Brazil early next week. 

Japanese government officials are trying to arrange a meeting for him with Trump toward the end of the trip, potentially during a stopover in the US before Ishiba returns to Japan.

While he remains prime minister, Ishiba faces an uncertain future because of the coalition’s weakened position after the national election. The LDP and Komeito need backing from some in the opposition to pass major legislation, including an extra budget to fund an economic stimulus package. Ishiba has said the budget will top ¥13 trillion ($85 billion).

The most likely source of support will come from the Democratic Party for the People, a small party relatively close to the LDP on the political spectrum that has enough seats in parliament to help the coalition pass legislation.

The DPP’s potential pivotal role has turned its leader, Yuichiro Tamaki, into a kingmaker. Tamaki is using that leverage to press for his primary policy goal of raising the ceiling of tax-free incomes from ¥1.03 million to ¥1.78 million. Talks are ongoing between the LDP and DPP over the proposal.

Though he’s emerged as a potential power broker, Tamaki faced some setbacks on Monday, after he acknowledged as “largely true” magazine reports alleging marital infidelity. Still, his party decided to keep Tamaki as its leader, with Secretary General Kazuya Shimba saying ahead of the vote for premier that the DPP would stand by Tamaki and vote for him as prime minister as planned.

With the opposition failing to coalesce around an alternative leader, Ishiba managed to secure the plurality needed to prevail in the runoff vote.

Following his re-election as prime minister, Ishiba is expected to name some new cabinet members as he seeks to re-set his administration just six weeks after he made the surprise leap from LDP party sidelines to become national leader. 

Still, his failed gamble of calling a snap election doesn’t bode well for his longevity as prime minister.

Concessions that Ishiba will have to make to opposition parties to manage a minority government could lead to calls to replace him within the LDP, said Masaki Taniguchi, a professor of political science at the University of Tokyo. The LDP faces another national election next July for the upper house of parliament, and some analysts see the passage of the national budget next spring as a potential watershed moment that could lead to a change at the top.

“It’s possible that there will be calls within the LDP for a change of prime minister after the annual budget proposal is approved,” Taniguchi said.

The return of Trump as US president also raises the stakes for Ishiba. Japan navigated the first Trump presidency relatively well, in part thanks to the close ties between the US leader and late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The leaders bonded over games of golf.

In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek in June, Trump spoke warmly about Abe but renewed his criticism of the yen’s weakness against the dollar and the advantage it gives Japanese companies such as automakers. 

Trump has also called for Japan to pay more for the US military presence of around 55,000 troops, the largest permanent foreign deployment of American forces. The current deal is up for renewal in 2026. 

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com