Trump’s first day in office: No immediate China tariffs proposed

President Donald Trump will not unveil China-specific tariffs on his first day in office, as the incoming administration starts with potential engagement with Beijing rather than igniting another trade war, according to people familiar with the matter.

The decision not to immediately target Beijing on Monday reflects a shift by the incoming president into a negotiating mode and an eagerness to cut another deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping, a person familiar with the decision said.

Instead, Trump will call for federal agencies to study tariff policies and the US’s trade relationship with China, Canada and Mexico, according to incoming officials for the Trump White House.

The planned move, first reported by the Wall Street Journal and confirmed by Trump officials, won’t impose new tariffs on Monday, but could set the stage for trade duties in the coming weeks or months.

Trump has said he could sign as many as 100 executive actions on Monday. His officials said those orders will also include measures to curb inflation and cut regulations, particularly those related to oil and gas production.

Trump is expected to direct agencies to study the feasibility of an external revenue service — a new agency that would collect tariff revenue — and to recommend how to design and implement it, according to a person familiar with the matter. It’s unclear how that’ll be different than the existing federal system under which the Treasury secretary establishes tariff collection rules and Customs and Border Protection administers them at ports of entry.

During his first term, Trump negotiated a “phase one” trade deal with Beijing that ended years of tit-for-tat tariffs, but few of China’s promised purchases of US goods materialized. Trump’s swearing-in ceremony is set for about midday in Washington.

Earlier: Trump Team Studies Gradual Tariff Hikes Under Emergency Powers

The dollar tumbled on the news that Trump would refrain from immediately implementing aggressive tariffs, with a Bloomberg gauge of the greenback extending losses to about 1.2% — on track for its biggest daily slide since November 2023. 

Investors have speculated that a trade war would be positive for the dollar given one would likely hurt foreign economies more than the US, limit US demand for international goods and boost the currency’s safe-haven status. US equity futures climbed.

Some people familiar with the decision cautioned that Trump often quickly changes his mind on strategy and could decide again to push forward with his original plans to target China. Still, Monday’s actions suggest a more deliberate approach than the fiery rhetoric about tariffs Trump offered during his campaign last year.

Tariff Threats

Trump’s tariffs — which he’s threatened to slap on adversaries and allies alike — stand to have one of the biggest impacts on the US economy, analysts say. The self-proclaimed “tariff man” enacted duties on about $380 billion in imports in his first term. On the campaign trail, he promised much wider measures, including a 10% to 20% charge on all imported goods and 60% on Chinese products.

He’s also vowed a 25% tariff on all products from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% duty on Chinese goods, which he’s said are intended to prod those countries to stop the flow of undocumented migrants and illegal drugs into the US.

Whether tariffs will do anything to close the trade deficit or bring back manufacturing or end any crisis is debatable. Many economists are skeptical. Tariffs in the short term are more certain to lead to a further appreciation of the dollar, raise the cost of imports, and add to government revenues, at least initially.

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